Mapping one dose and two dose COVID vaccine efficacy for virus variants: Data to inform policy decisions

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By Daniel R. Lucey MD, MPH, FIDSA

The last month saw three timelines overlap: global recognition of SARS-CoV-2 “variants”, worsening of the pandemic, and COVID-19 vaccine authorizations in many nations. As a result, policy decisions have been made regarding use of two doses of vaccine at varying intervals, and discussion of using only one dose in order to vaccinate as many people as possible now.

Urgent data to inform policy decisions should include a roadmap of the percent vaccine efficacy for each vaccine against the predominant international virus (D614G), the initial three variants and more that will surely follow. A prototype map is offered below:

VACCINE  (# shots)                     VIRUS  and VARIANTS       

—–                                          D614G    B.1.1.1.7 (UK)    B.1.351 (S. Africa)     P.1. (Brazil)     More

 

Pfizer  (2 shots)                      ~95%              ?                     ?                                 ?                 ?

Pfizer (1 shot)                            ?                   ?                     ?                                  ?                ?

 

Moderna   (2 shots)                ~95%               ?                      ?                                  ?                ?

Moderna (1 shot)                       ?                   ?                      ?                                  ?                ?

 

AstraZeneca (2 shots)           

AstraZeneca (1 shot)

J & J (1 shot)

Novavax

Sinopharm (B)

Sinopharm (W)

CanSinoBio

Gamaleya Sputnik V

Bhaharat Covaxin

More…

Dr. Daniel Lucey

Daniel Lucey, MD, MPH, FIDSA, FACP, is a Clinical Professor of Medicine (Teaching) at Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, adjunct Professor at Georgetown Medical Center, senior scholar at Georgetown Law, Anthropology Research Associate at the Smithsonian Museum of Natural History and a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America Global Health Committee. He served as a volunteer to outbreaks overseas including patient care in Sierra Leone and Liberia (MSF) during Ebola 2014, SARS 2003, MERS 2013, Plague 2017 as well as H5N1, Zika, and Yellow Fever. Since Jan. 6 he has contributed more than 50 posts to Science Speaks on COVID-19 and traveled to China Feb. 11. With career experiences, he proposed and helped design the 2018-2022 Smithsonian Exhibition on Epidemics.

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