The following is a guest post by Daniel Lucey, M.D. MPH, FIDSA, FACP
If current trajectories and reporting policies of the United States and China continue, then by May 15 the number of officially reported deaths due to COVID-19 in the U.S. will probably exceed the number of officially reported cases in China.
According to the WHO Covid-19 global dashboard, as of this afternoon (May 13) China has officially reported 84,458 cases, and 4,644 deaths.
By comparison, according to the Johns Hopkins University as of 2:15pm May 13 the U.S. has reported 83,150 deaths and 1,379,756 cases.
On Tuesday, China announced it is planning to test everyone in Wuhan, a city of approximately 11 million people in a short period of time, perhaps by the end of this month. Therefore, more patients might be diagnosed by laboratory testing. If they have no symptoms, then will they be officially reported to WHO by China?
Daniel Lucey, M.D. MPH, FIDSA, FACP, is an infectious diseases physician and adjunct professor of infectious diseases at Georgetown University Medical Center, a senior scholar at the Georgetown University O’Neil Institute, Anthropology Research Associate, Smithsonian Museum of Natural History and a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America Global Health Committee. He has responded to, and monitored information on outbreaks since 2001, and has provided a series of updates and analysis on what is now the COVID-19 pandemic in Science Speaks posts since Jan. 6, first published Jan. 7. This is his 23st update on questions raised by the continued spread of, and responses to the virus that causes COVID-19.